MAKE A

TEN-YEAR

PLAN

By Mike Reid | June 2023

Well America, here we are. Divided government once again. Republicans control the House with an extremely thin margin, and Democrats control the Senate with an even thinner one.

As a result, Congress will get absolutely nothing done for the next two years.

In other words, the last two years were the glory years for Democrats.

Because when it comes to the business of passing bills, Kevin McCarthy's Republican House and Chuck Schumer's Democratic Senate will have to agree on something, down to every single word of the bill passed by both the House and the Senate.

And then, of course, signed by Joe Biden, the president of the United States of America.

Are Democrats and Republicans finally going to put partisan politics aside to pass common-sense legislation that helps the American people thrive in the future? No. Not yet.

Ok, two years of massive gridlock, fights over the debt ceiling, investigations, etc. And it's finally election results night on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Steve Kornacki is reminding us of the abysmal Senate map, with 23 Democrats up compared to just 11 Republicans. Worse, nine of the 11 Republican states are crazy safe: Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Nebraska, Nebraska again, Mississippi, Indiana, Missouri.

The most vulnerable Republicans are in Texas (Ted Cruz) and Florida (Rick Scott).

Meanwhile, Democrats must defend Purple Michigan, Purple Nevada, Purple Pennsylvania, Purple Wisconsin, and Purple Arizona. And Red Ohio, Red Montana, and Red West Virginia.

Is it time for an entirely new kind of political commercial?

So in 2024, if every single Senate incumbent in those five purple states and in those three red states wins, Democrats will simply maintain our thin 51/49 majority.

Sherrod Brown will have to win in Ohio (Trump +8.1% in 2020).

Jon Tester will have to win in Montana (Trump +16.4% in 2020).

Joe Manchin will have to win in West Virginia (Trump +38.9% in 2020.)

So the best case scenario in 2024 is that Democrats win the presidency, win the House, but perhaps lose the Senate? So gridlock again?? Gridlock again is the best case.

But the worst case is that Democrats lose the Presidency, House, and Senate. Oh god.

Wait! Don't leave! No need to google "How to move to Canada ASAP?"

When Democrats...

‍Start with the goal to make America work for everyone. (Including you!)
Unfuck money in politics.
Recruit empathetic candidates.
Understand the opposite perspective.
Promise and achieve popular things.
‍Use our power to empower others.
Make politics fun.

Fast forward to Election Night on Tuesday, November 2, 2032. The Democrats are now extremely popular. It's extremely boring to be Steve Kornacki. The Democrats win the presidency in a landslide. Democrats add to our already massive majorities in Congress.

Think that's impossible? You should know that there is a great deal of historic precedent for Democrats being an extremely popular political party.

The 123rd Congress will begin in January 2033. And let's just say to make it easy that Democrats have the same majorities in 2033 as we did exactly 100 years before, in 1933.

So in 2033, Democrats will have 313 House Members and the Republicans will have just 117. Democrats will have 59 Democratic Senators to 36 Republicans. (Don't try to count to 100. There were a few less states.)

And then unbelievably, in the 2034 midterms simply following the historic precedent of what Democrat accomplished exactly 100 years prior, Democrats will gain nine more House seats and 10 more Senate seats, giving us 69 Democratic Senators.

Holy fuck, 69 Democratic Senators. How great will that be?

But wait, there's more. Simply, continuing to follow the historical precedent of what happened when Democrats were super popular, in the 2036 election Democrats will win the presidency again, pick up another 11 seats in the House and another six seats in the Senate.

Turn political anger into love.

That will give the Democrats a House majority of 333 Democrats to 89 Republicans.

75 Democratic Senators to just 17 Republicans.

In short, from 2033 until 2095, simply following historical precedent of 1933-1995, Democrats are projected to control the House for 58 years compared to Republicans control for just 4 years. In the same period, Republicans will control the Senate for just 10 years, compared to 52 years for the Democrats.

In American politics since the Depression, Republicans having any power whatsoever in the United States Congress is a historical abnormality. However, since 1995, Republicans have controlled the House for 20 years, compared to just eight for the Democrats. Since 1995, Republicans have controlled the Senate for 16 years, compared to 12 years for Democrats.

I propose the Democrats spend the next 10 years returning to being the kind of party we've been historically, a super popular one that wins massive majorities in the House and Senate, most but not all of the time.

The bad news is that the Democratic Party is extremely disliked right now. Only 11% of Americans have a very positive view of the Democrats, compared to 28% with a very negative view. The good news is that Republicans are equally disliked. Opportunity knocks.

Here's how the game of American Democracy appears to be playing out: It's always been a two party game. And except for super early on in the game, it's always been the Democrats and the Republicans. The parties are the vehicles through which Democracy operates, and it's extremely difficult to get any traction while operating outside of their structure.

You'll notice that all the Independent Senators are still affiliating with the Democrats, at least to some degree. There is no attempt at all to establish an Independent Clubhouse where Bernie Sanders, Angus King, and Kyrsten Sinema all hang out together. They are not going to form a team. They are playing the game as Independents, and are among the few to succeed with this rogue strategy.

So if you want to get anywhere in politics, you really do have to pick a side even if you're pretending you're not. And your choices are the Democrats or the Republicans.

There are only two teams, which is why Joe Manchin and AOC play for the same team.

Within each of the two parties are factions competing for power. The two dominant factions in the Republican Party are the Establishment Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell who is playing an extremely strong long-game, and the Trumps, led by Donald Trump.

The two dominant factions in the Democratic Party are the Establishment Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi who is playing silently, and the Progressives who aren't really led by anyone in the same way but Bernie, AOC, and Pramila Jayapal do play different leadership roles.

Politics is, well, it's a popularity contest.

What isn't talked about about much but I will mention briefly is the massive advertising industry working behind the scenes. From the perspective of many political professionals, the art of politics is really about raising massive amounts of money, and then spending that money on TV advertising, along with direct mail advertising. And some digital ads too.

It's been 13 years since the Supreme Court's Citizens United vs. FEC decision, which opened the floodgates to unlimited outside political spending. This decision created two sets of rules in politics, the "hard dollar" rules for the campaigns themselves, which must abide by strict contribution limits, and the "soft dollar" groups like Super PACs, which are allowed to operate by far fewer restrictions.

But ultimately, American Democracy does still come down to who wins the most votes. And while money can buy advertising, advertising doesn't always convince anyone of anything.

The good news for Democrats is that our core brand is stronger than the Republicans.

After all, here we are playing American Democracy and we're the Democrats. Strong name.

Also true is that we are the future-looking party and the Republicans are the past-looking party. Since time moves forward and not backwards, this gives us an additional advantage.

Finally, Donald Trump is running for president in 2024, which is going to be a mess of a thing. However, he has chosen the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party. This presents the Republicans with a third major disadvantage.